University of Houston Research Reveals Pre-Collapse Monitoring of Kakhovka Dam, Ukraine

On April 3, 2024, new research conducted by the University of Houston sheds light on the events leading to the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine in 2023.

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications Earth and Environment, reveals that the dam may have shown signs of deformation before its collapse. According to UH assistant professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Pietro Milillo, "Through our analysis, we observed displacements characterizing different segments of the dam, up to two years prior to the actual collapse."

The research team utilized a methodology called InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) to monitor the stability of infrastructure during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Lead author Amin Tavakkoliestahbanati emphasized the importance of proactive monitoring, stating, "Our findings emphasize the importance of continuous surveillance to detect and address potential risks before they escalate into catastrophic events."

Pietro Milillo highlighted the role of satellite technology in the study, noting, “Only in recent times are we able to observe such phenomena thanks to the increased number of satellites flying in space capable of such measurements.”

While the collapse of the dam has been attributed to an explosion on June 6, 2023, Milillo pointed out that the research identifies existing damage mechanisms that might have affected the dam before its collapse. He mentioned, “Current hypotheses ascribe the collapse of the dam to an explosion that occurred on June 6, 2023. Although our analysis cannot exclude an explosion that occurred on that date, they can identify existing damage mechanisms that might have affected the dam before its collapse.”

The University of Houston team's findings not only provide insights into the events leading to the dam's collapse but also underscore the potential of InSAR as a proactive monitoring tool for assessing infrastructure stability.

The research, supported by the NASA Decadal Survey Incubation Studies, involved collaboration with the German Aerospace Center and the Delft University of Technology. This study contributes to enhanced risk assessment and informed decision-making processes in the face of challenges related to climate change and geopolitical instability.